31 mar 2018

IS PVC INTERNATIONAL PRICE READY TO REBOUND?

Contrary to all publications reporting spot price decreases and stagnant to weak world market for export/import we do believe that market is currently touching the bottom and is ready to rebound from one day to the next.

MAIN FACTORS affecting demand are/were:
Delayed shipments of end of years sales from USA : those stocks are now under digestion:
Delayed winter: it is sunny here outside in Europe and it is the same in USA/China/…;
Chinese stocks built pre-new year : those stocks are now under digestion;
New Indian banking regulation: this is restricting import power of usual local importers due to lack of liquidities. This should be over soon by reducing the amount of actors importing but not the amount of PVC needed;
Weakening C2 price: oil is up by 10% compared to few weeks back.

WHAT ABOUT OFFER?
North America: tight entering the building season (quite no K57/70 available for export and restricted amount of K65 compared to average);
South America: tight due to Braskem production issue (South American production will remain in South America up to June);
Russia: tight Rusvinyl being in turnaround in April/May the Russian exports will be restricted up to June;
Europe: tight entering the building season with output issues in March by several producers which are affecting the stock target to enter the season;
Asia: in PVC turnaround season in China, Thailand,… (more than 4.000.000MT under T/U in April and more than 2.500.000 in May + usual inspections in China).

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT?
As soon as price level will be found attractive by importers (who will need soon to replenish their stocks) the current offer will not be sufficient to cover the demand and prices will rebound up very quickly.



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